【深度】广发银行上市“困局”

Core Viewpoint - The listing progress of Guangfa Bank has been stagnant for years, with no substantial advancements despite its strong qualifications as a national systemic important bank. The bank's internal discussions have shifted away from the topic of listing, reflecting a broader trend of stagnation in bank IPOs in recent years [1][5][21]. Group 1: Listing History and Challenges - Guangfa Bank has been planning to go public since 2009, but its journey has faced numerous setbacks, including halted and terminated listing guidance, and changes in major shareholders from Citigroup to China Life [1][5]. - The bank's listing ambitions have diminished in recent years, with no mention of IPO plans in its 2023 and 2024 annual reports, indicating a lack of independent listing preparation departments [1][5]. - The bank's internal sources attribute the stagnation to a combination of external factors, such as a low probability of A-share listings, and internal issues like unstable performance and governance challenges [1][5]. Group 2: Market Context and Comparisons - The period from 2006 to 2016 was considered a "golden period" for bank listings, with high revenue growth and initial public offering (IPO) price-to-book ratios exceeding 1, while recent years have seen a decline in bank valuations [5][6]. - Currently, there are 42 banks listed in A-shares and 33 in Hong Kong, with only 60 commercial banks having successfully gone public, highlighting the competitive and challenging nature of the market [6][8]. - The bank's asset scale has lagged behind peers, with its total assets in 2024 being only 30% of those of China Merchants Bank, indicating a widening gap due to missed listing opportunities [21][26]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Strategic Shifts - Guangfa Bank's financial performance has shown signs of decline, with a 14% drop in revenue and net profit from their peak values in 2020 and 2021, respectively [21][23]. - The bank's total assets reached 3.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, positioning it as a significant player among unlisted banks, yet it still faces challenges in capital adequacy and market positioning [28]. - China Life's acquisition of a controlling stake in Guangfa Bank has led to strategic shifts, emphasizing collaboration with insurance services and state-owned enterprises, but the complexity of shareholder interests remains a challenge for future listing efforts [19][20].