需求端预期削弱 菜籽粕期货价格短期回归区间震荡

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for rapeseed meal experienced a sharp decline, dropping to a low of 2661.00 yuan, with a current price of 2682.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.61% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, rapeseed meal prices have retreated from high levels due to increased supply from imported soybeans and high operating rates of oil mills, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [3] - Dayue Futures indicates that rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range due to low inventory levels of imported rapeseed and the impact of tariffs on Canadian oilseed meal [4] - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, there is an expectation of inventory reduction for rapeseed meal, which could positively influence futures prices despite competitive pricing pressures from soybean meal [5] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to rise with the onset of the aquaculture peak season, although the competitive advantage of soybean meal may weaken the demand outlook for rapeseed meal [3] - The market is closely monitoring the uncertainties surrounding China-U.S. trade negotiations, which could impact future pricing dynamics [3] - The seasonal consumption of aquaculture feed is strong, but the price competitiveness of rapeseed meal remains a concern, especially with the anticipated arrival of Brazilian soybeans [5] Group 3: Price Projections - Dayue Futures projects that rapeseed meal prices will oscillate between 2680 and 2740 yuan in the short term [4] - Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures suggests that support levels for rapeseed meal prices are between 2620 and 2650 yuan, with resistance levels at 2850 to 2855 yuan [5]