低估值+宏观利好加持 瑞银继续看好银行股：有望迎来重估良机

Macro Factors - UBS highlights concerns over rising populism leading to irresponsible fiscal policies, estimating a need for a 3% GDP fiscal tightening to stabilize the US government debt-to-GDP ratio [2] - Bank stocks perform better relative to other sectors during rising bond yields, with their performance closely tied to the steepening of the yield curve [2] - The growth of private sector loans is rebounding in Europe, particularly in corporate loans in France and Italy, with UBS's macro model indicating European bank stocks are currently fairly valued [2] Valuation Insights - Bank stocks in Europe and the US are trading at approximately 10% below their long-term average P/E ratios, with UBS suggesting that the cost of equity in Europe is too high at 11.6% compared to 8.8% in the US [3] - A 20 basis point increase in default loss rates or a drop in interest rates below 1% would be required to achieve the estimated 10%-14% EPS downgrade already factored into valuations, which UBS believes is unlikely [3] - UBS maintains global GDP growth forecasts at 2.9% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026, indicating a stable economic outlook [3] Reasons for Revaluation of Bank Stocks - Banks have demonstrated stronger resilience during the current downturn due to stress tests, high capital requirements for risky loans, and strict regulations [4] - Non-macro headwinds have significantly diminished, with deleveraging nearly complete and a reduction in litigation and fines against banks [4] - The risk of disruption from emerging technologies has decreased as these "disruptors" face stricter regulations and some have been acquired by traditional banks [4][5] Tactical Considerations - The banking sector is not overly crowded, ranking 8th globally and 9th in Europe in terms of sector crowding [6] - Earnings expectations for the banking sector are improving, with UBS ranking it 2nd in Europe and 5th globally for earnings revisions [6] - The banking sector is not severely overbought, with current overbought levels at one standard deviation, typically leading to outperformance [6] Recommended Banks - UBS recommends several banks across different regions, including BAWAG, ING, Standard Chartered, Barclays, and Intesa in Europe/UK, and Citizens Financial, KeyCorp, and Webster Financial in the US [7] - The selection criteria focus on countries nearing the end of interest rate hikes or those with high rates expected to decrease, as well as banks in strong currency countries [7] Strategic Preferences - UBS's global equity strategy team favors retail banks in Europe, select emerging market exposures, US investment banks like JPMorgan, and Japanese banks [8] - The preference for US banks is weaker due to anticipated domestic demand slowdown and faster-than-expected interest rate declines [8] - UBS identifies banks with a consensus "sell" rating but positive earnings revision trends, such as the Canadian National Bank and ABN AMRO, as potential investment opportunities [8]