报告：东盟+3地区经济具韧性，应对美关税仍有政策空间

Core Viewpoint - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth forecast for 2023 has been revised down to 3.8% due to increased global uncertainties, particularly related to U.S. tariff policies [1][2] Economic Growth Forecast - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth rate is projected to be 3.8% for 2023 and 3.6% for 2026, a decrease from earlier predictions of 4.2% for 2025 and 4.1% for 2026 [1] - The previous forecasts did not account for the impacts of newly announced U.S. tariffs [1] Economic Resilience - Despite global trade disruptions, the ASEAN+3 region has shown resilience, with policymakers taking early actions to mitigate trade shocks [1] - Inflation in the region is easing, and most regional currencies are appreciating against the U.S. dollar [1] Risks and Uncertainties - The economic outlook for the ASEAN+3 region remains uncertain, with U.S. tariff policy being a significant risk factor [1] - Ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs could further disrupt trade activities and hinder economic growth [1] Regional Cooperation and Integration - The diversity of the ASEAN+3 region is seen as a key advantage, with countries at different stages of economic development and varying resource endowments [2] - Strengthening regional cooperation and maintaining an open attitude towards the world can enhance the region's resilience to external shocks and create new growth opportunities [2] Internal Demand and Trade Diversification - The focus on domestic demand growth within the region provides a buffer against external shocks [2] - The ASEAN+3 region has diversified its export markets, with the share of exports to the U.S. decreasing; intra-regional trade now accounts for 45% of total trade [2]