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首席展望|中信建投基金冷文鹏:北交所仍具投资性价比,看好分红、消费以及创新主线
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-24 08:30

Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange (北交所) has shown significant growth in the first half of 2025, with the North 50 Index rising by 39.45%, positioning it among the top global stock indices. The outlook for the second half remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on dividend, consumption, and innovation as key investment themes [1][6]. Market Performance and Drivers - The North Exchange's strong performance in the first half of 2025 was primarily driven by policy benefits, followed by liquidity improvements and valuation recovery. However, the market is currently experiencing a degree of valuation bubble that needs to be addressed through earnings growth [2][5]. - The market is expected to maintain a high level of volatility and correlation with domestic markets, influenced by the characteristics of small and innovative companies listed on the North Exchange [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - The North Exchange is positioned for continued growth, focusing on supporting innovative small and medium enterprises, particularly in advanced manufacturing and modern services. This aligns with national strategies to foster strategic emerging industries [3][6]. - Investment strategies should balance defensive and offensive positions, with dividends serving as a shield and domestic demand and innovation as the spear. The emphasis on stabilizing growth policies and enhancing domestic consumption is expected to create opportunities in cyclical core assets [7]. Future Outlook - The North Exchange is anticipated to continue its robust development, with significant potential for expansion and improvement in company quality. The market is likely to see increased attention from institutional investors, which could lead to substantial growth [3][4]. - Future reforms and measures, such as high-quality expansion of companies and the introduction of specialized indices, are expected to attract more market interest and investment [3][4].