Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the 20th anniversary of the RMB exchange rate reform, highlighting the shift from a fixed exchange rate to a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, referencing a basket of currencies [1][3]. Exchange Rate Reform - The RMB exchange rate reform, known as "7·21," was implemented on July 21, 2005, transitioning from a single peg to the US dollar to a more flexible system [1]. - Since the reform, the People's Bank of China has gradually increased the daily fluctuation range of foreign exchange trading prices and reduced intervention in the exchange rate, enhancing the market's role in the formation of the exchange rate [1]. RMB Exchange Rate Trends - A report by the China Financial Forty Forum (CF40) analyzes the RMB exchange rate's fundamentals, valuation, and potential in the context of current foreign exchange management policies and the internationalization strategy of the RMB [3]. - From 2005 to early 2022, the RMB's real effective exchange rate appreciated nearly 60%, aligning with the faster productivity growth of China's trading partners [3]. - However, since 2022, despite rapid industrial upgrades and increasing export competitiveness, the RMB's real effective exchange rate has depreciated by over 15% [3][6]. Determinants of RMB Exchange Rate - The determinants of the RMB exchange rate include external forces (global financial market risk appetite and the US dollar index), domestic market forces (improvements in economic expectations), and domestic policy influences [4][5]. - The correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the US dollar index is significant but lower than that of developed countries' currencies [4]. Domestic Policy Impact - Since 2017, China's foreign exchange reserves have stabilized, indicating a reduced intervention by monetary authorities in managing the RMB exchange rate [5]. - The alignment of the RMB's central parity and spot exchange rate from 2017 to 2022 suggests a move towards a more flexible floating exchange rate system [5]. Demand Insufficiency - Demand insufficiency is identified as the primary reason for the RMB's continued depreciation since 2022, leading to low price levels and asset valuation [6]. - The low inflation and weak asset price expectations resulting from demand insufficiency reflect a market failure, causing an undervaluation of the RMB's real exchange rate [6]. Recommendations for Exchange Rate Management - To address the current situation, it is suggested to establish a wide fluctuation range for the RMB against the US dollar to prevent excessive distortion of the exchange rate [7]. - The implementation of this intervention should be firm, with strict penalties for actions that breach set limits, ensuring that market participants do not easily challenge the established boundaries [7].
张斌：应当设定人民币兑美元的波动区间 重点守住下限
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-24 08:43