Ultima Markets欧元/美元价格预测：进一步上涨似乎很可能

Core Insights - The Euro/USD has risen to a two-week high, approaching 1.1770 amid volatile trading conditions [2] - Improved trade sentiment has led to a slight retreat of the US dollar [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming meeting [4][10] Trade and Economic Sentiment - The slight increase in the Euro reflects a mild pullback in the Dollar Index (DXY), driven by improved trade prospects [5] - Recent US-Japan trade agreements have provided some relief to global markets, while potential US-EU agreements are boosting risk sentiment [7] - The ECB's cautious stance is influenced by external demand signals, with a recent cut in deposit rates to 2.00% [9] Market Positioning - As of July 15, speculators have increased their long positions in the Euro to approximately 128.2K contracts, the largest bet since December 2023 [11] - Conversely, commercial participants have expanded their short positions to nearly 184.2K contracts, marking the largest hedge in months [11] Technical Analysis - A breakthrough above the 2025 high of 1.1830 could pave the way for testing the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [12] - Conversely, a drop below the July low of 1.1556 may lead the currency pair towards the transitional 55-day SMA of 1.1501 [13] Momentum Indicators - Momentum has improved but remains unstable, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 62 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 22 [14] Influencing Factors - The Euro's rebound occurs against a backdrop of tariff tensions and widening policy gaps between the Federal Reserve and the ECB [17]