Core Viewpoint - The recent US-Japan tariff agreement has significantly impacted gold's safe-haven demand, leading to a drop in gold prices despite a weakening dollar [5][8]. Market Performance - On Wednesday, international spot gold opened at $3431.03, peaked at $3438.54, and closed at $3386.89, marking a decrease of 1.30% with a trading range of 1.67% [1]. - The US dollar index opened at 97.34, reached a high of 97.61, and closed at 97.19, down 0.17% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 7221.46, closed at 7165.77, down 0.83% [3]. Tariff Agreement Impact - The US imposed a 15% tariff on Japan, which agreed not to retaliate and pledged $550 billion in investments in the US, indicating a perceived victory for the US in trade negotiations [5]. - The market speculates that a similar outcome may occur in upcoming negotiations with the EU, potentially reducing the need for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][8]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is at a critical juncture, with potential for a breakout or significant decline depending on market conditions and the dollar's performance [11]. - If gold prices confirm a breakout above certain resistance levels, a new upward trend may emerge; otherwise, a significant drop could occur [11]. Domestic Market Dynamics - In the Shanghai gold market, the AUTD gold price has seen an increase in discount relative to theoretical RMB prices, indicating strong selling pressure [13]. - The futures market shows a greater premium over spot prices, suggesting that while there is a strong desire to reduce inventory, speculative pressure remains low [14]. ETF Holdings Trends - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, has maintained high levels of holdings, reflecting a consistent trend with gold prices, while the largest silver ETF, Ishares, has seen a stronger accumulation trend, indicating a divergence in market performance [16].
威尔鑫点金·׀ 美日关税协议冲击黄金避险需求 金价受挫失守3400美元
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-24 08:58