供应扰动不断，碳酸锂期货近一个月涨幅超30%，是否可以继续追涨？

Group 1: Market Overview - Lithium carbonate main contract surged by 7.21% to 76,680 yuan/ton, reaching a new high amid strong market sentiment and supply disruptions [1] - Concerns over mining compliance in Yichun and potential production halts contribute to market volatility [1][4] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by the "anti-involution" trend, leading to significant price fluctuations [4][6] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Recent reports indicate production issues in lithium mining, particularly in Jiangxi, raising concerns about supply contraction [2][3] - Yichun's mining permit issues have led to stricter compliance checks, affecting operational stability for several companies [1][5] - The market is experiencing a slow recovery in warehouse receipts, which, combined with rising prices at the mining level, supports a strong price trend for lithium carbonate [1][2] Group 3: Demand Factors - The domestic electric vehicle market shows strong production and sales growth, with a 38.7% increase in new energy passenger vehicles produced in the first half of the year [2] - Anticipated government policies to encourage car consumption, such as purchase subsidies, are expected to bolster demand further [2] Group 4: Price Forecasts - Analysts predict a tight supply-demand balance in July, with lithium prices expected to remain supported due to ongoing concerns about mining operations [3][4] - Short-term price fluctuations are anticipated, with potential for wide-ranging price movements due to market sentiment and supply disruptions [4][5] - Long-term projections suggest that upcoming production from South American salt lake lithium projects may limit price rebounds [5][6] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Trading Strategies - The market is currently characterized by a "weak reality, strong expectations" dynamic, with speculative trading driving price movements [6][7] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach to market news and consider establishing short positions once short-term sentiment stabilizes [6][7] - The trading environment is marked by high volatility, with significant participation from speculative capital [8]