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国泰海通:从产能周期视角看“反内卷”
Ge Long Hui·2025-07-24 09:44

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the prevalence of "involution" competition across most primary industries in the A-share market, particularly highlighting the midstream manufacturing sector as more pronounced than upstream resource products [1] - It discusses the necessity of addressing "involution" competition in the current macroeconomic environment, as highlighted in a recent publication [1] - The article outlines the progress of capacity clearance across different industries, focusing on capacity utilization rates and potential incremental capacity [1] Existing Capacity Utilization - The methodology for measuring industry capacity utilization is based on the Cobb-Douglas production function, comparing actual output to potential maximum output [2] - As of Q1 2025, most industries are experiencing "involution" competition, with capacity utilization levels at historical lows, except for the home appliance and electronics sectors, which are on an upward trend [2] Potential Incremental Capacity - The potential for incremental capacity in industries is assessed through two dimensions: expansion willingness and capacity [3] - As of Q1 2025, most industries show low expansion willingness, with only utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals exhibiting relatively strong willingness [3] - The expansion capacity is generally at a historical mid-high level, with sectors like telecommunications, agriculture, and home appliances showing healthy cash flow [3] Capacity Clearance Trajectories - Different industries exhibit varying capacity clearance paths depending on their lifecycle stages [5] - In emerging industries, clearance signals are linked to cash capabilities and low expansion willingness, as seen in the solar industry from 2011 to 2015 [5] - Traditional industries like steel and coal have shown a prolonged decline in potential incremental capacity, with capacity utilization rates initially dropping before rising again, forming a "V" shape [5] Current Industry Dynamics - In the current cycle, the upstream resource sectors are not facing severe supply overcapacity issues, with capacity utilization rates for steel and coal nearing 19-year lows due to demand decline [12] - The cash capability in traditional industries is showing signs of improvement, particularly in basic chemicals and steel [12] - In the renewable energy sector, lithium battery and solar capacity utilization rates have reached historical lows, with both sectors' expansion willingness nearing 0% over the past decade [12]