一年来首次！欧央行今夜或按下降息“暂停键”

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to pause its year-long interest rate cut cycle, marking the first such pause in over a year, as policymakers await clearer information before deciding on future actions [1][2] - A recent survey indicated that all but two economists expect the ECB to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the upcoming meeting, temporarily halting the 200 basis points of rate cuts that began in June 2024 [1] - The ECB's communication style and policy statement will be closely watched, particularly how officials describe the decision to maintain rates, as the use of the term "pause" may fuel market expectations that rate cuts are not over [1][3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, particularly President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU imports starting August 1, is a primary reason for the ECB's decision to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2] - The potential impact of these tariffs poses significant risks to the European economic outlook, with the ECB's previous stress tests only assuming a 20% tariff on all European goods [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that the eurozone's output could stagnate in the second and third quarters due to these tariff impacts [2] Group 3 - There is a lack of consensus among ECB officials regarding the next steps after the pause, with some advocating for further easing due to concerns that inflation may remain below the 2% target [3] - Conversely, other officials express caution, suggesting that the threshold for further rate cuts is "very high," and they warn that increased public spending in the coming years could stimulate prices [3] - The strong euro, which has appreciated 13% against the dollar this year, is causing concern among some policymakers as it could make exports more expensive and lower import costs [4][7] Group 4 - The ECB is also monitoring the euro's strength closely, with some officials indicating that a rise above 1.20 against the dollar could complicate the economic situation and prompt the ECB to consider further rate cuts [7] - However, not all officials share this concern, with some arguing that fears regarding the euro's strength are exaggerated and that it is difficult to complain about its strength while advocating for its global status [7]