价涨量跌 下半年首饰金继续“看空”？

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption decreased by 3.54% year-on-year, totaling 505.205 tons, with jewelry consumption dropping significantly by 26% [1] - Despite high gold prices, investment in gold, particularly through ETFs, surged with a year-on-year increase of 173.73% in the first half of 2025 [2] - The overall trend for gold prices remains upward, with a year-to-date increase of over 28% as of the latest data [4] Group 1: Gold Consumption Trends - Gold jewelry consumption fell to 199.826 tons, a decline of 26% year-on-year, while gold bars and coins saw an increase of 23.69% to 264.242 tons [1] - The high price of gold has led to a significant reduction in consumer foot traffic in jewelry stores, with some reporting a 50% drop in customer inquiries [1] - Consumers are favoring high-value, well-designed jewelry products, which are more profitable for retailers [1] Group 2: Investment Demand - Gold ETF holdings increased by 84.771 tons in the first half of 2025, marking a 173.73% rise compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The demand for gold bars and coins remains strong, driven by heightened investment interest amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [2] - The price of gold reached a peak of 835 yuan per gram in April 2025, reflecting a significant increase in investment activity [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Sentiment - As of late June 2025, the London spot gold price was reported at $3,287.45 per ounce, a 24.31% increase since the beginning of the year [2] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, with gold prices expected to continue their upward trend as long as they do not fall below $3,200 per ounce [3] - The latest data indicates that gold prices have risen by over 28% since the start of the year, reinforcing its status as a safe-haven asset [4]