9月降息预期骤降！拉加德警告：若欧美贸易摩擦升级，将对通胀施加下行压力

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain interest rates, marking the first pause in rate cuts in over a year, while expressing caution regarding global trade uncertainties [1][2] - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that inflation is moving towards the 2% medium-term target, but significant uncertainties remain, particularly related to US-EU tariff negotiations [1][2] - The probability of a rate cut in September has dropped significantly from 40% to 28%, while the probability for December is at 72%, down from earlier predictions of over 90% [1][8] Group 2 - Lagarde stated that the ECB is in a "good place" as various forward-looking indicators show inflation stabilizing towards the target, although future inflation assessments are more uncertain than before [2][3] - The potential risks from tariffs could exert downward pressure on inflation by suppressing European export demand and causing oversupply in the market [3] - Lagarde called for urgent structural reforms from governments to enhance economic resilience, especially in a context of relatively loose fiscal policy [4][5] Group 3 - Lagarde indicated that the ECB does not target exchange rates but will consider their impact on inflation forecasts, noting that there are currently no signs that euro appreciation poses a challenge to policy [3][6] - The market is shifting from discussions of the last rate cut to considerations of the timing for the first rate hike, contingent on easing trade uncertainties and enhanced economic resilience [6]