海通国际：下调金徽酒目标价至22.0元，给予增持评级

Core Viewpoint - The report on Jinhuijiu (603919) indicates a significant adjustment in the liquor industry, with a downward revision of the target price to 22.0 yuan and a recommendation to hold the stock [1] Industry Overview - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase characterized by "policy adjustments, consumption structure transformation, and stock competition" [2] - In Q1 2025, liquor production continued to shrink, with a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, and the main sales price range has shifted from 300-500 yuan to 100-300 yuan [2] - Many liquor companies are experiencing pressure on revenue and profits in Q2 2025, with traditional consumption scenarios like business banquets facing ongoing challenges [2] Company Performance - Jinhuijiu's revenue and net profit have shown steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +11.0% for revenue and +9.9% for net profit from 2015 to 2024 [2] - The company aims for total revenue of 3.28 billion yuan in 2025, representing an 8.6% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year [2] - The product structure has shifted towards high-end products, with the high-end series (above 300 yuan) increasing its share from less than 15% in 2022 to 18.8% in 2024 [3] Market Dynamics - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue growth was only +1.1%, significantly down from +16.1% in 2024, while external revenue grew by +9.5%, slower than the +14.7% growth in 2024 [3] - The company is focusing on refined channel operations in the domestic market and strengthening banquet scene binding to avoid inventory buildup [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to have a dividend payout ratio of 64.0% in 2024, with a dividend yield of 2.6%, the highest since its listing [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.3 billion, 3.7 billion, and 4.3 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 400 million, 500 million, and 500 million yuan [4] - The company is assigned a target price of 22 yuan for 2025, based on a 27x price-to-earnings ratio [4]