Group 1 - The market sentiment for steel prices remains pessimistic during the off-season, with prices showing a fluctuating trend in June. However, a rebound was observed in July driven by "anti-involution" sentiment, although the rebound was weaker compared to raw materials [1] - Steel companies reported good profits in the first half of the year, leading to increased procurement demand for raw materials, while the recovery of domestic coking coal production remains slow after safety inspections [1] - Overall, supply-demand contradictions have not yet become prominent, with both domestic and international demand showing resilience. Expectations of favorable policies domestically and interest rate cuts overseas are supporting a strong fluctuating trend for steel prices in July [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, China's steel exports reached 58.147 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. Despite a decline in exports to Vietnam, India, and South Korea, high growth was maintained in Southeast Asia, particularly in Thailand and the Philippines [2] - The global manufacturing PMI showed a recovery, with the JPMorgan global manufacturing PMI at 50.3% in June 2025, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved export expectations for steel [2] - Domestic fiscal policies have been proactive, with a rapid issuance of special bonds and a 15.4% increase in water management investment in the first half of the year. However, there are risks of weakening demand in the second half due to high tariffs in the U.S. and continued weakness in the real estate sector [2][4] Group 3 - Narrow infrastructure investment growth has slowed, with the manufacturing PMI remaining below the threshold and manufacturing investment growth dropping to 4.9% [3] - Short-term demand shows resilience, but without sustained favorable policies, there will be pressure for demand to decline in the future [4] Group 4 - On the supply side, the Central Financial Committee's meeting emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity, raising expectations for supply-side structural reforms [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that a work plan for stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel, will be released soon, further strengthening policy expectations [5] - Current supply and demand, along with cost support, are forming a foundation for steel prices. The slow recovery of domestic coal mines is contributing to a strong trend in coking coal prices, while downstream replenishment has begun [5]
螺纹钢短期偏强运行 关注后续供需面政策落地情况
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-07-25 00:22