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美国金融状况达三年来最宽松,美联储降息或“火上浇油”
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-07-25 00:29

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is under increasing political pressure to restart interest rate cuts, despite currently overseeing the loosest financial conditions since the beginning of rate hikes in early 2022 [1][4]. Financial Conditions - The Chicago Fed's broad financial conditions index has dropped to its lowest level in over three years, indicating a very accommodating financing environment in the economy [1][4]. - Various financial indicators, including short-term and long-term interest rates, stock prices, and energy prices, are encompassed in the financial conditions index, which has shown a decline due to factors such as a rebound in the stock market and a significant depreciation of the dollar [4]. Economic Indicators - Despite high borrowing costs and trade uncertainties, the overall economic performance remains strong, with sufficient financial "oxygen" to continue growth, even as inflation remains above target [4]. - The S&P Global data indicates that U.S. business activity is expanding at its fastest pace since December of the previous year, reflecting a rebound in business confidence [6]. Cash Holdings - U.S. household deposits reached $4.46 trillion at the end of the first quarter, only slightly below the record peak from 2022, while cash-like money market fund assets hit a record of $7.1 trillion [6][7]. Stock Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market continues to reach historical highs, driven primarily by retail investors, with even more speculative areas like "meme stocks" and cryptocurrencies gaining popularity again [8]. Wealth Effect - The stock market's rise has significant implications for consumer spending, with estimates suggesting that the "wealth effect" from investments contributed up to 1% growth in U.S. consumer spending last year [9]. Interest Rate Debate - There is a debate regarding the appropriateness of maintaining high interest rates, with some arguing for a reduction of over 3 percentage points to 1% to alleviate high mortgage rates and government borrowing costs [9][10].