Core Viewpoint - The manganese silicon market is experiencing a price increase driven by strong expectations and cost support, but the supply-demand dynamics remain weak and stable, leading to cautious optimism about future price increases [1][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - In July, the manganese silicon futures price rose from a low of 5576 yuan/ton to over 6000 yuan/ton, reaching a four-month high [1]. - The spot prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased by 200 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively, although these increases were lower than the futures prices, indicating a weakening basis [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The rise in the black metal market is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy, which has created positive expectations, although this is just a trigger for the price increase [1]. - The black metal industry is facing limited accumulation of contradictions during the off-season, with some prices falling to marginal cost levels, which, combined with policy expectations, has fueled bullish market sentiment [1]. Group 3: Cost Dynamics - The cost support for manganese silicon is primarily influenced by coking coal prices, which have rebounded significantly, with main contract prices increasing over 60% from their lows [2]. - However, manganese ore prices have remained stable, and electricity prices have not changed significantly, limiting the upward pressure on manganese silicon costs [2]. Group 4: Production and Demand - As of mid-July, the operating rate of independent manganese silicon enterprises was 40.53%, with a daily average output of 26,120 tons, showing a slight decrease but a significant increase from previous lows [3]. - The steel market is entering a traditional off-season, particularly affecting rebar demand, which has led to a continuous decline in rebar production and subsequently impacted manganese silicon demand [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While manganese silicon prices are expected to continue rising due to strong expectations and cost support, the weak supply-demand balance and potential accumulation of industry contradictions warrant cautious optimism regarding future price increases [4].
锰硅保持谨慎乐观态度
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-07-25 00:42