金荣中国：特朗普访问美联储总部，金价扩大回落震荡走低

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on May 24, with an opening price of $3398.14 per ounce, a high of $3398.14, a low of $3351.38, and a closing price of $3372.53 [1] Economic Indicators - The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for the U.S. in July recorded 49.5, below market expectations of 52.7 and down from the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary S&P Global Services PMI for July was 55.2, exceeding expectations of 53 and the previous value of 52.9 [2] - Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted that the latest PMI data indicates a significant acceleration in the U.S. economy at the beginning of the third quarter, but the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. The manufacturing sector showed its first deterioration of the year, partly due to the fading impact of short-term purchases driven by tariff expectations [2] - Inflationary pressures are rising, with companies attributing cost and price increases to tariffs. The price increase for goods and services in July was one of the largest in the past three years, suggesting that consumer price inflation may exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target in the coming months [2] Federal Reserve Developments - President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell engaged in a public dispute regarding the renovation costs of the Federal Reserve headquarters, with Trump claiming costs rose from $2.7 billion to $3.1 billion, while Powell disputed the accuracy of this data [3] - Nick Timiraos described Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve as a political performance aimed at increasing pressure on the Fed and tarnishing Powell's public image, while also pushing for interest rate cuts [5] - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 95.9%, with a 4.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut. For September, the probability of maintaining rates is 39.2%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 58.4% [7] European Central Bank Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates unchanged and reiterated its data-dependent approach, emphasizing the resilience of the Eurozone economy [5] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the bank is in a "good position" and does not rule out considering interest rate hikes, although the global trade policy environment remains unstable, leading to increased uncertainty regarding inflation [6] - Lagarde highlighted that the risks to economic growth are tilted to the downside, and improvements in business confidence could stimulate private investment [6] Geopolitical Context - The U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Issues, Wittekopf, announced the U.S. withdrawal from the Doha ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, citing Hamas's lack of serious negotiation [6] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw an increase in holdings by 2.29 tons, bringing the total to 957.09 tons [6]