“反内卷”对债市有何影响？

Group 1 - The recent slight upward trend in the ten-year government bond yield is primarily driven by two catalysts: "anti-involution" and market expectations regarding real estate policies [1] - Investors are concerned that the rebound in industrial product prices may lead to an overall increase in macroeconomic inflation, which could constrain future monetary policy stimulus and pose an upward risk to interest rates [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to structurally improve certain industries, particularly those with poor competitive landscapes, potentially allowing them to raise prices above cost levels, thus enhancing overall supply-demand dynamics and boosting future profitability [1][2] Group 2 - The current "anti-involution" policy differs significantly from the previous round of supply-side reforms, as it is more focused on self-regulation at the industry level rather than being implemented at the policy level [2] - The time required for the effects of the "anti-involution" policy to materialize and for industry profitability and price increases to impact overall inflation means it does not currently pose a substantial downside risk to the bond market [2] - From an investment perspective, the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is considered a favorable option due to its vertical nature, low fees, and ease of trading, making it suitable for current market conditions [2]