创新药暴涨之后到位了吗？汇丰：下半年还有三大催化剂

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is undergoing a significant valuation reassessment, driven by favorable policies and a surge in overseas transactions, leading to a strong market performance this year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 24, the A-share innovative drug index has surged over 40%, with some individual stocks increasing by more than 500%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index has risen by 73%, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 24% increase [1]. - The innovative drug sector's strong performance is closely linked to frequent positive policy developments, including measures to support high-quality development of innovative drugs announced on July 1 [2]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The new policies include improvements in medical insurance payment policies and optimization of review and approval processes, which are expected to enhance the market environment for innovative drugs [2]. - The total value of domestic innovative drug overseas transactions reached $48.4 billion in the first half of the year, nearing last year's total and marking a historical high [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Outlook - Despite high valuations, HSBC believes that the reassessment is not yet complete, as Chinese pharmaceutical companies are becoming crucial players in global pharmaceutical innovation [3]. - The report anticipates that multiple new drugs will be launched between 2026 and 2029, supported by strong product pipelines and clinical trial progress [4]. Group 4: Catalysts for Growth - Three main catalysts are expected to sustain the momentum in the pharmaceutical sector: upcoming academic conferences, continued overseas licensing deals, and a favorable policy environment [4][5]. - Significant clinical research data is anticipated to be released at the World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) and the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting in September and October [4]. Group 5: Financial Projections - Leading pharmaceutical companies are entering a revenue growth phase, with an expected average sales growth of approximately 11.2% in the first half of 2025 [6]. - The average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for profits of covered leading pharmaceutical companies is projected to reach around 18% from 2025 to 2027, driven by new drug launches and normalized business development income [6].