金荣中国：现货黄金仍受限隔夜跌势影响，表现消极

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently under pressure, trading around $3368, following a decline influenced by optimistic global trade sentiment and strong economic data [1] - On July 24, gold prices fell approximately 0.55%, closing at $3368.35 per ounce, as market optimism regarding trade agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1] - The unexpected improvement in US labor market data has strengthened the US dollar and Treasury yields, further exerting downward pressure on gold prices [1] - President Trump’s rare visit to the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, despite his assurance that he would not dismiss Chairman Powell [1] - The market anticipates that the Fed will maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% during the upcoming meeting, although expectations for a rate cut in September remain [1] Economic Data - The latest data from the US Labor Department shows that initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 217,000, the lowest level in three months, indicating a solid labor market despite a slowdown in hiring [3] - The S&P Global Composite PMI rose from 52.9 in June to 54.6 in July, with the services PMI significantly increasing to 55.2, reflecting accelerated economic activity [3] - The strengthening of the dollar and rising Treasury yields have diminished gold's investment appeal, as gold typically performs poorly in high-interest-rate environments [3] - Approximately 40% of service providers and nearly half of manufacturers attribute price increases to tariff policies, suggesting rising inflationary pressures [3] - There are warnings that consumer price inflation may exceed the Fed's 2% target in the coming months, further reducing expectations for a rate cut [3] Global Trade Situation - Signs of easing global trade tensions have contributed to the downward pressure on gold prices, with the US and Japan reaching a trade agreement that lowers auto import tariffs to 15% [4] - Positive developments in US-EU trade negotiations are also noted, with expectations of a potential agreement that includes a 15% baseline tariff, lower than the previously threatened 30% [4] - The easing of trade tensions has led investors to favor higher-risk assets, such as equities, over traditional safe-haven assets like gold [4] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that discussions regarding extending trade agreement negotiations with China are set to take place next week, further boosting market confidence [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The combination of strong US economic data and improved trade sentiment may suppress gold prices in the short term, but caution remains as the Trump administration's tariff deadlines approach [5] - Market participants are advised to monitor upcoming employment data and the Federal Reserve's decisions, as well as developments related to Trump and geopolitical situations [5]