美联储不够“听话”？债券市场才是特朗普真正的硬骨头

Group 1 - The core conflict is between institutionalism and populism, with Trump advocating for lower borrowing costs while the Federal Reserve maintains its distance from political pressures [1][2] - The market's perception of the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial; any perceived political interference could lead to increased bond yields and decreased investor confidence [2][4] - Trump's call for a 3% rate cut could disrupt traditional economic models, with current futures markets showing a near-zero probability of a rate cut next week, but a 60% chance by September [1][3] Group 2 - The relationship between Federal Reserve rates and mortgage rates is complex; long-term mortgage rates are influenced more by long-term Treasury yields than by the Fed's overnight rates [3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to inflation, particularly regarding tariffs, is seen as prudent given the potential for future inflation shocks [3][4] - Trump's frustration with Powell's delay in rate cuts highlights the tension between political pressures and the need for stable monetary policy [4]