特朗普越是施压鲍威尔，美联储越不可能降息？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, highlighting the pressure exerted by Trump on Fed Chairman Powell to lower interest rates and the potential counterproductive effects of this strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Independence vs. Political Pressure - The conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve represents a fundamental clash between institutional independence and populism, questioning whether expert institutions can manage economic policy better than elected officials [2]. - Trump has called for a significant 3% rate cut, which would mark a radical shift and disrupt traditional economic models, although this may be more political rhetoric than a feasible policy [2]. - Current futures markets indicate a near-zero probability of a rate cut next week, with a 60% chance of a cut in September [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Real Costs - Market data supports the argument that political pressure on interest rate policy leads to increased inflation volatility, causing investors to demand higher compensation [3]. - Following Trump's call for a 3% rate cut, the 10-year Treasury yield premium rose to 0.84%, up from 0.6% after a similar attack in April, indicating a market response to political intervention [3]. Group 3: Misunderstanding of Mortgage Rates - Trump’s assertion that high interest rates are preventing home purchases is misleading, as standard 30-year fixed mortgage rates are more closely tied to long-term Treasury yields than to the Fed's overnight rates [5]. - Since the Fed began cutting rates last September, the overnight rate has decreased by 1%, while the 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 6.2% to 6.75%, illustrating the complex relationship between these rates [5]. Group 4: Inflation Concerns and Policy Considerations - The article notes a divergence between the Trump administration and the Fed regarding the economic impact of tariffs, with the Fed taking a cautious approach due to past inflation misjudgments [6]. - Economic indicators supporting a rate cut include minimal inflation impact from tariffs, slightly above-target inflation, weak private sector hiring, slowing wage growth, and rising default rates on loans [6]. Group 5: Professional Justification for Rate Cuts - Concerns are raised about Trump's pressure tactics, suggesting that while there are valid reasons for the Fed to cut rates faster than expected, these should not be articulated by the President [7]. - The article advises the Trump administration to allow market and professional assessments based on economic data to justify rate cuts, rather than continuing to undermine the Fed's independence [7].