日美谈妥，日本央行年内加息希望重燃！

Core Insights - The trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan creates potential for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates this year, contingent on the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1][2] - The BOJ's assessment of the economic outlook may become more optimistic, moving away from a focus on tariff-related risks [1][2] - The upcoming BOJ policy meeting on July 30-31 is expected to provide a more positive evaluation of the U.S. tariff impacts and possibly adjust inflation forecasts [2][4] Economic Context - Japan's economy has been struggling with weak consumption, rising living costs, and a sluggish manufacturing sector, leading to concerns about recession [1][4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations has previously led the BOJ to lower growth expectations and pause interest rate hikes [1][4] - Despite a recent trade agreement, analysts predict that U.S. tariffs will still negatively impact Japan's GDP growth by approximately 0.55 percentage points [4] BOJ's Policy Outlook - BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchid's recent comments indicate a shift towards a more optimistic view regarding achieving the 2% inflation target, which is a prerequisite for further rate hikes [1][2] - The BOJ's internal divisions on the timing of rate hikes reflect ongoing concerns about the fragile state of the economy, with some members advocating for a more aggressive approach [3][4] - Market expectations for a potential rate hike in October are growing, with the two-year Japanese government bond yield reaching a near four-month high of 0.845% [2][4]