日股狂飙触发市场警报：多项指标逼近2024年崩盘前水平

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market is experiencing a significant rise, with some market indicators approaching levels seen before last year's crash, driven by the US-Japan trade agreement pushing indices to historical highs [1] - Concerns are raised about the current market's vulnerability, as technical indicators show similarities to the situation before last year's sell-off, particularly with the Tokyo Stock Exchange index (TSE) reaching a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of approximately 79, indicating potential overbought conditions [1] - The TSE index is currently more than 5% above its 25-day moving average, a deviation historically associated with market corrections, as seen in September 2021 and March 2022 [4] Group 2 - The recent rise in the TSE index has not been accompanied by an increase in trading volume, suggesting a lack of strong market confidence [7] - As the summer season approaches and trading volume decreases, the market may face volatility following the rapid increase, with many companies likely to adopt cautious outlooks during the earnings season due to tariff impacts [10] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the TSE index has reached 15.7 times, nearing the 15.87 times level seen before last August's decline, although it remains cheaper compared to US stocks [10]