原油大涨1.2%，汽油预降25元/吨，4天后调价，油价搁浅大势已定！

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming oil price adjustment on July 29, 2025, is expected to result in a price freeze, with the current trend indicating that the price reduction will not meet the standard threshold of 50 yuan per ton [1][5][7]. Price Adjustment History - In the previous adjustment (the 14th of 2025), gasoline and diesel prices decreased by 130 yuan and 125 yuan per ton, respectively, leading to a price drop of 0.1-0.12 yuan per liter [3]. - The last four price adjustments have shown a pattern of "3 increases and 1 decrease," with significant price increases observed from early June to early July, where gasoline and diesel prices rose by 560 yuan and 540 yuan per ton [3][5]. Current Market Analysis - As of July 25, 2025, the average price of crude oil is at 67.75 USD per barrel, with a change rate of -0.73%, indicating a decrease of 25 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [5][7]. - Recent trends in the crude oil market show a slight increase, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.2% to 66.03 USD per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.98% to 69.18 USD per barrel [5][7]. Future Predictions - The oil price adjustment mechanism suggests that the upcoming adjustment may not exceed a reduction of 50 yuan per ton, with the likelihood of a price freeze being high [5][7]. - The market remains cautious about the potential for further increases in crude oil prices, which could limit the extent of any price reductions in the upcoming adjustment [7].