美联储该换“锚”了？华尔街激辩联邦基金利率是否已“名存实亡”

Core Viewpoint - The idle cash flowing in the U.S. financial system is expected to shrink in the coming months, reigniting debates on how to assess monetary supply tightness and which benchmark interest rates the Federal Reserve should target [2][3] Group 1: Federal Funds Rate and Its Relevance - The Federal Funds Rate, historically relied upon by central banks since the 1980s, is now seen as less relevant for managing credit flow in the economy [3] - The average daily borrowing amount in the Federal Funds market is approximately $110 billion, which is only about 0.5% of commercial bank assets, significantly lower than the pre-2008 level of around 2% [2] - Some experts suggest that other rates, such as the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and repo rates, may serve as better indicators of cash flow within the system [3][7] Group 2: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - The New York Fed plays a crucial role in withdrawing liquidity from the U.S. financial system and identifying early signs of market turmoil [4] - The last significant liquidity crunch occurred in 2019 when the Fed's balance sheet was rapidly reduced, leading to a spike in key lending rates [6] - Current bank reserves are ample at $3.38 trillion, but there are concerns that reserves may be allowed to drop to around $2.7 trillion, potentially increasing financing pressure in September [6][7] Group 3: Alternative Measures and Recommendations - Experts propose that the three-party general collateral repo rate (TGCR) and other repo benchmarks could be ideal substitutes for the Federal Funds Rate, as they reflect where financial institutions actually lend cash [7] - A report led by former New York Fed President William Dudley suggests that the Fed should stop announcing the Federal Funds Rate range and instead target the interest on reserve balances (IORB) [7] - The interconnectedness of short-term rates is emphasized, with some analysts arguing that the Federal Funds Rate is becoming less significant in the current financial landscape [7]