新能源“反内卷”显效：硅料碳酸锂齐涨，车企叫停价格战

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the Chinese new energy industry, focusing on eliminating low-price competition and promoting product quality improvement, which has begun to show positive effects in the photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicle sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The new energy sector has faced severe "involution" competition, primarily manifested through price wars, which have eroded profit margins and threatened innovation and sustainable development [2]. - In the photovoltaic sector, silicon material prices dropped over 70% in 2023, leading to significant profit declines, with 39 out of 121 listed photovoltaic companies reporting net losses in the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - The lithium battery industry is also struggling, with prices for lithium iron phosphate materials falling below 40,000 yuan/ton, and some low-end products dropping to 30,000 yuan/ton, resulting in a paradox of technological upgrades without profit growth [2]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - The central government has initiated a series of "anti-involution" policies since mid-2024, focusing on industry self-discipline and preventing malicious competition, which has begun to yield positive results [4][6]. - Key measures include addressing below-cost competition and promoting capacity consolidation and industry self-regulation in the photovoltaic sector, with recent price increases observed in polysilicon and n-type silicon materials [5]. - The lithium battery sector is implementing diverse strategies, including raising technical standards and limiting disorderly capacity expansion, which are expected to facilitate the exit of outdated capacities and improve profitability [5][6]. Group 3: Market Trends - The new energy vehicle market is projected to maintain rapid growth, with sales expected to reach 15.73 million units by 2025, a 29% year-on-year increase [3]. - However, the automotive manufacturing industry's profit margins have declined from 7.8% in 2017 to 5.0% in 2023, further dropping to 4.4% in the first eleven months of 2024, largely due to price wars [3]. Group 4: Future Directions - The industry is transitioning from price competition to value creation, emphasizing technological innovation, market mechanisms, and global collaboration [7]. - Supply-side reforms and capacity reductions are seen as immediate solutions to address short-term supply-demand mismatches, with major photovoltaic companies announcing collective production cuts [7]. - The lithium battery sector is encouraged to enhance recycling systems and improve resource efficiency, while the new energy vehicle market should shift from purchase subsidies to usage incentives [7][8]. Group 5: Global Strategy - Chinese new energy companies are urged to accelerate globalization efforts, optimizing production and sales layouts to navigate global trade barriers and expand into emerging markets [8]. - The shift from global exports to global manufacturing is underway, with policies in regions like Europe and North America encouraging local investments, which will further drive overseas expansion of Chinese new energy firms [8].