Core Viewpoint - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has significantly downgraded its forecast for the U.S. housing market, predicting that home sales in 2025 will hit a 30-year low, with total transactions expected to reach only 4 million units, a decline of 1.5% from 2024 [4][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. housing market is experiencing unprecedented stagnation due to high mortgage rates, which are limiting buyer affordability and discouraging sellers from listing their properties [3][7]. - The anticipated average mortgage rate for 30-year fixed loans in 2025 has been revised upward to 6.7%, with only a slight decrease to 6.4% by year-end, compared to earlier expectations of 6.3% [8][10]. - Active listings in the U.S. have surpassed 1 million for the first time since late 2019, yet this increase in inventory has not translated into higher sales due to affordability constraints [10][12]. Group 2: Seller Behavior - Many sellers are opting to withdraw their listings rather than reduce prices, with delistings increasing by 47% year-over-year in May, indicating a trend of holding out for better market conditions [12][14]. - Despite the drop in sales, home prices are projected to rise by 2.5% in 2025, reflecting a surprising price stickiness in a market where transactions are plummeting [12][14]. Group 3: Construction and First-Time Buyers - New home construction is expected to decline by 3.7% in 2025, with single-family home starts projected at only 980,000 units, a stark contrast to earlier forecasts of a 13.8% increase [14][15]. - The typical age of first-time homebuyers has reached a record high of 38 years, with homeownership rates expected to fall to 65.2% in 2025, down from 65.6% in 2024 [15].
38岁才买首套房？2025年美国房屋销量恐创30年新低！
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-25 08:01