大摩邢自强：香港稳定币新政即将落地，谁将抢占数字金融先机

Group 1 - Hong Kong is positioned as a strategic testing ground for stablecoins, driven by regulatory policies and the preparation for cryptocurrency trading, which will benefit issuers, brokers, and fintech companies [2][5] - The upcoming Stablecoin Ordinance, effective August 1, 2025, marks Hong Kong's leading role in the global stablecoin regulatory race, reshaping the global stablecoin landscape and creating new opportunities in fintech and cross-border trade [5][6] - The global stablecoin market has reached $250 billion, with 99% denominated in USD, highlighting the urgency for China to accelerate its digital finance initiatives in response to the U.S. regulatory framework [6][8] Group 2 - Early beneficiaries of stablecoin development will include issuers, brokers, and fintech companies with mature blockchain technology, such as Futu Holdings and ZongAn Online, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the stablecoin business [3][7] - Traditional financial institutions may experience a slower transformation due to the limited impact of stablecoins on traditional banking services, as they do not generate interest or serve lending functions [7][8] - The low-cost and instant settlement advantages of stablecoins in cross-border e-commerce could reduce transaction costs by up to 90%, although widespread adoption may be hindered by existing payment systems in developed markets [7][8] Group 3 - The development of the Renminbi stablecoin (CNH) may lag behind USD and HKD stablecoins due to constraints such as limited offshore RMB liquidity and competition with existing cross-border settlement tools [4][8] - Despite challenges, there are long-term opportunities for the Renminbi stablecoin, particularly if it can integrate with the RMB cross-border payment system (CIPS) and expand offshore RMB bond issuance [8][10] - Hong Kong's stablecoin initiatives are a strategic choice for China to respond to global digital finance competition and solidify its status as an international financial center [10]