车用润滑油站在十字路口，电动化趋势主宰行业命运

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing a significant transformation due to the rapid development of electric vehicles, which is also impacting the lubricating oil sector [2][5] - Lubricating oil is being redefined from merely a friction-reducing agent to a critical technology support for enhancing vehicle efficiency, environmental control, and system stability [2][5] Market Overview - The self-sufficiency rate of lubricating oil in China has increased from less than 50% a decade ago to 70% in 2022, with domestic demand reaching approximately 7.184 million tons in 2023 [3][4] - Major market players include Shell, ExxonMobil, and Castrol, which hold about 25% of the market share, while state-owned enterprises like Kunlun and Great Wall account for 50% [4] Import Dependency - China faces a high dependency on imports for high-end lubricating oil additives, with 85% of the global market share dominated by four companies: Lubrizol, Infineum, Chevron, and Afton [4] - In 2024, China is expected to import 243,200 tons of lubricating oil additives, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.74% [4] Future Market Potential - The Chinese automotive market is projected to reach a vehicle ownership of 359 million by mid-2025, with the aftermarket evolving into a strategic growth area for the lubricating oil industry [5][6] - The automotive aftermarket is expected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan in annual output by 2024, with a projected annual growth rate of over 6% in the next five years [6] Changing Consumption Patterns - The lubricating oil consumption structure is shifting towards high-end, customized, and intelligent products, necessitating collaboration between lubricating oil companies and vehicle manufacturers [9] - The industry is moving from a "manufacturing-oriented" approach to a "user-oriented" and "experience-oriented" model, emphasizing the need for differentiated products through additive technology [8][9] Challenges and Innovations - The emergence of alternative energy sources is presenting new challenges for lubricating oil stability and compatibility, requiring innovative formulations that can adapt to various fuel types [7][8] - Companies must focus on developing lubricating oils that can maintain performance across different fuel environments, highlighting the importance of precise additive formulation [8]