一夜变脸！高盛突然改口：不再预计欧央行年内还会降息

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its policy interest rate at 2%, marking the first pause after eight consecutive rate cuts since June 2024 [3] - Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have adjusted their expectations for further ECB rate cuts, with Goldman no longer expecting a cut this year and JPMorgan delaying its forecast from September to October [2][3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the economic outlook is currently in a "good position," suggesting that rates may remain unchanged unless there is a significant deterioration in the economic outlook [3] Group 2 - The outcome of trade negotiations between the EU and the US remains uncertain, but there is speculation about a potential agreement that could impose a 15% tariff on EU goods [3] - Several major banks, including Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, reaffirmed their expectations for a rate cut in September, although some analysts warned of increased risks to this prediction [4] - Market sentiment reflects uncertainty regarding the likelihood of further ECB rate cuts this year, with traders pricing in only a 30% chance of a rate reduction before the end of the year [4]