瑞银：“反内卷”下的中国汽车经销商、保险业、互联网巨头们

Group 1: Chinese Luxury Car Dealers - UBS analysts noted a recent stock price increase for Zhongsheng Group and Yongda Automotive, with respective rises of approximately 20% and 5% over the past five days, attributed to expectations of improved new car profit margins and market speculation on industry consolidation [2][3] - The Chinese government's crackdown on irrational competition is expected to stabilize retail prices and improve profit margins for dealers, which are sensitive to changes in new car profit margins [3][4] - Traditional luxury car brands are facing declining sales, with a 14% year-on-year drop in the first half of 2025, as domestic brands capture a larger market share, leading to potential further retail price discounts [4][5] Group 2: Chinese Insurance Industry - Following recent anti-involution measures, the Chinese life insurance sector saw a 9.1% increase in H-shares over four trading days, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [7] - Rising interest rates are expected to benefit life insurance companies in the long term, enhancing net asset value and reducing risks associated with interest spreads [8] - UBS anticipates that the upcoming lower pricing interest rate benchmark may make dividend-type policies more attractive, benefiting insurers with strong investment and distribution capabilities [8][9] Group 3: Chinese E-commerce Industry - The second quarter saw a 6.3% year-on-year increase in online retail sales, indicating a shift towards high-quality growth, with improved return rates attributed to policy changes on e-commerce platforms [11][12] - Instant retail investments by Alibaba and JD.com have led to a recovery in daily active users, although the conversion rate of new traffic remains lower compared to traditional channels [13][14] - UBS favors Alibaba in the e-commerce sector due to its potential in artificial intelligence-related businesses and expects significant value realization if execution is successful [18]