美股盈利引擎全开 但警报已拉响！

Group 1 - The earnings engine of the S&P 500 index is showing strong performance, with approximately 83% of companies exceeding analyst expectations, potentially marking the highest surprise ratio since Q2 2021 [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen 28% since hitting a low on April 8, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 also reaching record highs, indicating improved investor risk appetite [1] - Companies like Google, Horton Homes, and Netflix have reported better-than-expected earnings, contributing to positive market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Economic data shows resilience in the labor market, with initial jobless claims declining for six consecutive weeks, suggesting no signs of fatigue [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 is approximately 22.5, significantly above the 10-year average of 18.6, raising concerns about limited margin for error [2] - Analysts are closely monitoring earnings guidance, as companies need strong narratives and outlooks to support stock prices in a challenging market [2] Group 3 - Despite strong earnings, the S&P 500's performance lags behind international stocks, with concerns about potential market bubbles due to anticipated interest rate cuts [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is expected to be a focal point for insights on potential rate cuts [3]