3 6 Ke·2025-07-25 11:30Core Viewpoint - The new Anti-Unfair Competition Law will take effect in October 2025, prohibiting platforms from passing more than 70% of subsidy costs onto merchants, with violators facing fines up to 5 million yuan. This regulation marks a significant shift in the ongoing subsidy war among major food delivery platforms, which is now seen as a capital consumption battle with a deadline [1][13][24]. Group 1: Background and Market Dynamics - JD.com entered the food delivery market with a "0 commission + 10 billion subsidies + full insurance for riders" strategy in February 2025, prompting competitors like Meituan and Ele.me to engage in a subsidy war [3]. - By April 2025, Ele.me initiated a subsidy program exceeding 10 billion yuan, while Alibaba upgraded its Taobao platform to include a flash purchase feature, investing 50 billion yuan in subsidies to reclaim market share [3][6]. - The competition intensified, with Meituan and Ele.me launching aggressive promotional campaigns, leading to a significant drop in average order value from 30 yuan to 15 yuan, despite a surge in daily orders [13][19]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) held two rounds of talks with major platforms, addressing issues like unfair competition and rider rights. The first meeting on May 13, 2025, focused on broad issues, while the second on July 18 targeted specific problems related to subsidy practices [9][15][17]. - The new law will enforce stricter regulations on promotional activities, aiming to eliminate irrational competition and ensure a healthier ecosystem for consumers, merchants, and riders [15][24]. Group 3: Financial Implications and Market Strategies - Goldman Sachs predicts that the three major platforms could incur losses of up to 90 billion yuan in the coming months due to ongoing subsidy wars [1]. - Meituan reported a peak of 1.5 billion daily orders, while Ele.me's flash purchase service reached around 800 million daily orders, indicating a fierce competition for market share [20][23]. - The platforms are using capital to secure user bases, with JD.com focusing on quality delivery and supply chain efficiency, while Meituan and Ele.me leverage high-frequency user engagement to drive sales in higher-margin categories [19][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As the new Anti-Unfair Competition Law comes into effect, the intensity of subsidies is expected to decline, leading to a shift towards efficiency and differentiated competition among platforms [24]. - The future winners in the food delivery market will be those who can convert delivery efficiency into merchant profits and foster brand loyalty among users, emphasizing long-term sustainability over short-term capital expenditure [24].