Why Freeport-McMoRan Stock May Hit a New High After Earnings Beat

Core Viewpoint - Freeport-McMoRan reported strong second-quarter earnings, exceeding expectations, but shares experienced a slight decline post-reporting, indicating market volatility despite positive financial results [3][4]. Financial Performance - Top-line revenue reached $7.6 billion, surpassing expectations of $6.8 billion and reflecting a 15% increase from $6.6 billion in the same quarter last year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) were 56 cents, exceeding the expected 46 cents by 20% and showing a year-over-year increase of over 20% [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at $2.1 billion, with operating cash flow of $1.8 billion [9]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Freeport-McMoRan anticipates supportive fundamentals for copper pricing due to low inventories and rising demand, suggesting a bullish outlook for the company and the sector [5][6]. - The company is positioned to increase copper production, with ASIC below $2 while copper spot prices are at $5.88, providing significant leverage for future earnings [6]. - The stock price forecast for the next 12 months is $51.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.33% [8]. Capital Management - The company reduced its net debt to $1.5 billion, maintaining a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30% [10]. - Freeport-McMoRan returned capital to shareholders through a secure dividend with a payout ratio of around 24%, paying 15 cents per share quarterly, and repurchased $5.5 billion of shares in the quarter [10]. Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - FCX stock has increased over 18% in 2025, forming an ascending triangle pattern before breaking higher in early July [11]. - The stock has faced resistance around $54 and has dropped below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), with a need for a breakout above this level to confirm continued institutional buying [13].