美元霸权的“黄昏”VS人民币国际化的“弄潮”

Core Viewpoint - The dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency is increasingly being challenged due to US financial policies and rising global de-dollarization trends [1][3][4]. Group 1: US Dollar's Declining Influence - The US dollar has served as the primary global reserve, payment, and pricing tool since World War II, but its supremacy is now under threat from unilateral tariffs and fiscal deficits [1][3]. - The dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell over 10% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [4]. - Concerns over a potential US economic slowdown have led to decreased demand for the dollar, contributing to its decline [4]. Group 2: Fiscal Challenges and Credit Ratings - The US's growing fiscal deficit and the resulting imbalance in government debt supply and demand are undermining the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [4]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to deteriorating fiscal conditions, which could further pressure the dollar [4]. - Predictions indicate that the US federal debt may increase by over $3 trillion in the next decade due to ongoing tax cuts [4]. Group 3: Future of the Dollar - Economists predict that the role of the dollar will be significantly diminished in the next ten years [5]. - The US's use of the dollar as a tool for economic coercion is prompting other countries to seek alternatives for trade settlements [6]. Group 4: Rise of the Renminbi - The renminbi is increasingly becoming an important reserve currency for central banks, with expectations that 30% of central banks will increase their renminbi holdings in the next decade [7]. - The renminbi has become the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [7]. - The establishment of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is facilitating the internationalization of the renminbi, with new partnerships in Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia [8]. Group 5: Structural Changes in Global Trade - The shift in global trade and industrial structures is favoring the renminbi as countries adapt to a changing international monetary system [8]. - China's position as the second-largest economy with a complete industrial chain is enhancing its export scale and promoting the use of the renminbi in cross-border trade [8].