大宗商品暴涨！贸易商进场拿货，焦煤涨超70％，多晶硅涨超50％，后市机会在哪？｜大宗风云

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in commodity futures, particularly in coking coal and polysilicon, is driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment influenced by policies aimed at reducing competition and production costs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Coking Coal Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures have seen a significant price increase, with a 73% rise from June 3 to July 25, attributed to a tightening supply-demand balance and reduced domestic supply due to environmental regulations [1][2]. - The current demand for coking coal remains resilient, supported by high iron production levels and a notable increase in purchasing activity from downstream steel mills and coking enterprises [3][7]. - As of July 24, the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal has risen from 700 CNY/ton to approximately 950-1000 CNY/ton, reflecting a substantial increase in both spot and futures prices [3]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Trends - Polysilicon futures have surged by 56% from July 1 to July 25, driven by macroeconomic factors and increased market optimism following policy signals aimed at reducing competition [4][5]. - The rising prices of coal are expected to increase electricity costs for high-energy-consuming industries, further impacting the production costs of polysilicon and industrial silicon [4][5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has raised its forecast for new photovoltaic installations in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the polysilicon market [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Chain Insights - As of July 25, the inventory levels for domestic photovoltaic glass have decreased significantly, attributed to increased procurement by component manufacturers [6]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in the short term, with ongoing monitoring of coal mine production and regulatory impacts on supply [8]. - The potential increase in imports of Australian coking coal is anticipated, which could further influence the domestic supply landscape [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish, with expectations of continued price increases in both coking coal and polysilicon, although caution is advised due to the rapid pace of price increases [7][9]. - The focus for future price movements will be on the actual implementation of macroeconomic policies, supply chain adjustments, and the willingness of downstream markets to absorb higher prices [8][9].