Seagate's Q4 Earnings Ahead: Is a Beat in the Cards Again?

Core Insights - Seagate Technology Holdings plc is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on July 29, with earnings estimated at $2.46 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 134.3% and revenues projected at $2.41 billion, indicating a 27.5% rise from the previous year [1] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Expectations - The management anticipates quarterly revenues of $2.4 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected to be $2.4 per share [1] - Seagate has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 15.67% [1] - The expected mass capacity revenues for Q4 are projected to rise 39.5% year over year to $2 billion [7][8] Group 2: Market Demand and Product Strategy - There is a rising demand for mass capacity storage driven by increasing nearline cloud requirements, aligning with cloud investment cycles and AI-ready data center expansions [2] - Seagate's high-capacity nearline products are experiencing strong demand from cloud customers globally, contributing to increased revenues and profits [3] - The launch of the Mozaic 3+ hard drive platform featuring HAMR technology is expected to enhance Seagate's market share in mass capacity storage solutions [4] Group 3: Technology and Production - Seagate's technology strategy is focused on ramping up HAMR technology to meet the growing demand from cloud customers, with Mozaic drives being the only products in the industry offering 3 terabytes per disk [5] - The company has significantly increased production of its 24-28 terabyte PMR drives, which are now its top-selling product line in terms of revenue and exabyte shipments [4] Group 4: Financial Performance and Margins - The gross margin for the fiscal fourth quarter is projected at 36.8%, an increase from 30.9% in the prior year, driven by strong nearline demand and optimized pricing [9] - Revenue estimates for the HDD segment are pegged at $2.25 million, reflecting a 30.1% increase from the previous year, while the non-HDD segment is expected to decline by 3.4% [8]