Core Viewpoint - Seagate Technology Holdings plc is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings, with expectations of revenue growth driven by mass capacity demand, particularly from cloud customers and AI applications [1][2][3]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $1.75 per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, compared to non-GAAP earnings of 33 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1]. - Management anticipates revenues of approximately $2.1 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected to be $1.70 per share [2]. - Revenue estimates for the HDD segment are projected at $1.989 billion, reflecting a 34.7% increase year-over-year, while non-HDD segment revenues are expected to decline by 15.6% to $150.2 million [8]. Market Dynamics - Seagate expects continued improvements in mass capacity due to rising nearline demand from global cloud customers and enhancements in enterprise and OEM markets [2]. - The company has increased production of its 24-28 terabyte PMR drives, which are now its top-selling product line [4]. - The demand for HDDs is anticipated to rise as cloud service providers focus on AI application development and infrastructure [3]. Revenue and Margin Expectations - Mass capacity revenues are expected to increase by 50.1% year-over-year to $1.77 billion in the fiscal third quarter [7]. - Non-GAAP gross margin is projected to be 35.8%, up from 26.1% in the prior-year quarter, benefiting from strong demand for new nearline products and pricing actions [9]. Supply Chain and Operational Challenges - Supply chain issues are expected to impact revenues by approximately $200 million, although the company plans to meet build-to-order commitments [2]. - Non-GAAP operating expenses for the fiscal third quarter are estimated at $290 million [9]. Earnings Prediction - Current models do not predict an earnings beat for Seagate, with an Earnings ESP of -1.28% and a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) [10].

Seagate (STX) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move ...

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (NASDAQ: STX ) is due to report earnings on the 22 nd of April, so I wanted to go through some numbers as well as what I am looking out for fromMSc in Finance. Long-term horizon investor mostly with 5-10 year horizon. I like to keep investing simple. I believe a portfolio should consist of a mix of growth, value, and dividend-paying stocks but usually end up looking for value more than anything. I also sell options from time to time.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, o ...

Seagate (STX) shares rallied 11.7% in the last trading session to close at $74.29. This move can be attributable to notable volume with a higher number of shares being traded than in a typical session. This compares to the stock's 23.5% loss over the past four weeks.The increase in share price can attributed to President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, barring China. This led to increases for most stocks including Seagate and subsequent skyrocketing indices.Seagate is well-pois ...

Group 1 - The article discusses significant changes in the tech sector since September, highlighting events like CES and the introduction of DeepSeek's R1 generative AI model [1] - The author emphasizes a bullish investment strategy focused on companies with strong fundamentals, particularly in revenue and earnings growth, while also considering market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The author has a background in the investment industry, influenced by family experience, which shapes their analytical approach [1] - The analysis style includes fundamental and sentiment analysis, with a preference for identifying opportunities across various industries [1]

Company Overview - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is positioned to benefit from strong momentum in mass capacity, which is a significant contributor to its revenues [1] - Mass capacity revenues increased by 79% year over year and 9% sequentially, driven by robust cloud demand [1] Nearline Revenue Growth - Nearline revenues nearly doubled in Q2 of fiscal 2025 compared to the previous year, reflecting a 60% growth for 2024 [2] - This growth is attributed to strong demand from cloud service providers and Enterprise/OEM clients, aligning with a 50% increase in cloud capital expenditures by customers in 2024 [2] Cloud and AI Integration - Cloud service providers are increasingly focusing on AI application development and cloud infrastructure deployment, with HDDs expected to play a crucial role in this transition [3] - Seagate anticipates a rise in HDD demand as these trends continue [3] Revenue Projections - Management forecasts Q3 fiscal 2025 revenues to be around $2.1 billion (+/- $150 million), with an estimate of $2,140.1 million [4] - Strong cloud demand is expected to mitigate seasonal declines in other markets, despite supply chain challenges potentially impacting revenues by $200 million [4] Product Innovations - Seagate has ramped up production of its 24-28 terabyte PMR drives, which are now the top-selling product line [6] - The company is scaling up production of HAMR-based Mozaic products and has achieved significant milestones with capacities up to 36 terabytes [7] Competitive Landscape - The data storage industry is experiencing intense competition, which could lead to pricing pressures affecting margin performance [8] - Seagate faces competition from companies like Western Digital Corporation (WDC), NetApp Inc (NTAP), and Pure Storage, Inc (PSTG) in both HDD and SSD markets [9] Competitor Insights - Western Digital has separated its HDD and Flash businesses into independent companies, focusing on innovation in storage technologies [10] - NetApp is seeing strong demand for its all-flash portfolio, with a reported annualized net revenue run rate of $3.8 billion, up 10% year over year [12] - Pure Storage reported an 11% revenue increase to $879.8 million, driven by record sales across its product offerings [13]

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is trading comparatively cheap from a valuation standpoint. STX is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 2.05X, a discount compared with the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s 6.53X and the Zacks Computer – Integrated Systems industry’s 3.27X.Image Source: Zacks Investment ResearchThe stock also looks attractively valued relative to other peers like International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) , Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) and Agi ...

Chip stocks have had a major rude awakening in 2025, with news that China’s DeepSeek AI models may not need advanced Nvidia ( NVDA ) chips to build out highly functional LLMs. But while Nvidia has dominated the headlines, there’s oneWith combined experience of covering technology companies on Wall Street and working in Silicon Valley, and serving as an outside adviser to several seed-round startups, Gary Alexander has exposure to many of the themes shaping the industry today. He has been a regular contribut ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Seagate reported Q2 earnings with net sales of $2.3 billion, a 50% year-over-year increase, driven by a rebound in storage demand [1] - The company's gross margin improved from 23.3% in Q2 2024 to 34.9% in Q2 2025, while operating margin expanded from 8.0% to 21.0% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) surged to $1.55 from $(0.09) over the same period [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Seagate stock has risen 30% since early January 2024, outperforming the S&P 500's 28% increase during the same period [2] - The stock has experienced significant volatility over the past four years, with returns of 88% in 2021, -51% in 2022, 69% in 2023, and 4% in 2024 [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Seagate is focusing on Heat Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR) technology, shipping 30 TB hard disks, which positions the company for growth amid increasing demand for high-capacity drives [3] - Revenue is expected to grow 40% year-over-year to $9.2 billion in 2025, with a valuation estimate of $115 per share, reflecting a 6% upside from current levels [4] - Analysts have an average price estimate of $123 for Seagate, indicating nearly 13% upside potential [4]

Revenue and Gross Margin - Revenue for the December 2024 quarter was $2.3 billion, with a gross margin of 34.9% and operating cash flow of $221 million[122] - Revenue increased by $157 million compared to the September 2024 quarter, driven by higher demand for nearline products and favorable pricing actions[126] - Gross margin for the December 2024 quarter increased by 2 percentage points compared to the September 2024 quarter, primarily due to favorable product mix and cost efficiencies[129] - Gross margin for the December 2024 quarter increased by 12 percentage points compared to the December 2023 quarter, driven by favorable product mix, pricing actions, and the absence of $36 million in factory underutilization charges[130] - Revenue for the six months ended December 27, 2024, increased by $1.5 billion compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to higher demand for nearline products and favorable pricing actions[127] Product Shipments and Demand - The company shipped 151 exabytes of HDD storage capacity in the December 2024 quarter, with mass capacity drives accounting for 140 exabytes[126] - The company anticipates temporary supply constraints in the March quarter due to resolved production challenges, but expects continued growth in HDD storage demand driven by Generative AI applications[123] Sales Incentives and Warranty Costs - Sales incentive programs accounted for 14% of gross revenue in the December 2024 quarter, compared to 13% in the September 2024 quarter and 18% in the December 2023 quarter[128] - Warranty costs related to new shipments were 0.7% of revenue in the December 2024 quarter, consistent with the September 2024 quarter and down from 0.9% in the December 2023 quarter[132] Expenses - Product development expenses increased by $3 million in the December 2024 quarter compared to the September 2024 quarter, primarily due to higher compensation and employee benefits[133] - Product development expenses increased by $23 million in the December 2024 quarter compared to the December 2023 quarter, primarily due to a $24 million increase in compensation and other employee benefits[134] - Marketing and administrative expenses increased by $31 million in the December 2024 quarter compared to the December 2023 quarter, primarily due to a $26 million increase in compensation and other employee benefits[137] - Other expense, net increased by $51 million in the December 2024 quarter compared to the September 2024 quarter, primarily due to a $50 million increase in net loss from certain investments[140] Cash and Financial Obligations - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by $120 million from June 28, 2024 to December 27, 2024, primarily due to $295 million in dividends paid to shareholders and $139 million in capital expenditures[146] - The company has $1.5 billion available for borrowing under its senior unsecured revolving credit facility as of December 27, 2024[148] - The company has unconditional purchase obligations of approximately $900 million as of December 27, 2024, with $810 million expected to be paid within one year[156] - Future principal payment obligation on long-term debt is $5.7 billion as of December 27, 2024, with $479 million due within one year[158] - The company accrued a settlement penalty of $300 million related to BIS' allegations of violations of the U.S. EAR, with $60 million expected to be paid within one year[159] - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share, payable on April 2, 2025[160] - The company expects capital expenditures to be higher in fiscal year 2025 compared to fiscal year 2024[162] Investments and Financial Instruments - The company has $531 million in floating rate money market funds, time deposits, and certificates of deposit with an average interest rate of 4.53%[169] - The company holds $5,729 million in fixed rate debt obligations with an average interest rate of 5.64%, maturing in various years up to 2029 and beyond[169] - The company has foreign currency forward exchange contracts with a total notional amount of $280 million, including $167 million in Singapore Dollars, $66 million in Thai Baht, $31 million in Chinese Renminbi, and $16 million in British Pound Sterling[173] - The company uses Total Return Swaps (TRS) to manage equity market risks associated with its non-qualified deferred compensation plan liabilities, paying a floating rate based on SOFR plus an interest rate spread[175]