Will Q4 Results Move Seagate Stock Higher?

Core Viewpoint - Seagate is expected to report fiscal Q4 earnings with no growth in earnings but a significant increase in sales, indicating a mixed outlook for the company [1][2]. Financial Performance - Analysts predict Seagate will announce earnings of $2.43 per share on sales of $2.42 billion, compared to $2.44 per share and $1.89 billion in the previous year, reflecting a 28% rise in sales [1]. - The company forecasts adjusted EPS for Q4 to range between $2.20 and $2.60, with revenue expected between $2.25 billion and $2.55 billion [2]. - Seagate's market capitalization currently stands at $32 billion, with total revenue over the past twelve months amounting to $8.5 billion, and operational profits of $1.6 billion, resulting in a net income of $1.5 billion [2]. Historical Trends - Historical data shows that Seagate's stock has risen 55% of the time in the one day following earnings announcements, with a median increase of 6.1% and maximum one-day positive returns reaching 12% [1][6]. - Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day returns, leading to a positive return rate of approximately 55% [6]. - This positive return rate increases to 64% when considering data from the last three years [6]. Trading Strategies - Two strategies are suggested for traders: position before the earnings release based on historical chances or analyze the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-earnings [3]. - A relatively lower-risk strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, allowing traders to make informed decisions based on historical data [7].