“反内卷”政策驱动下，中国PX行业产能升级与价格波动分析

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in China's bulk commodity market are closely related to the implementation of "anti-involution policies," particularly impacting the petrochemical industry due to new or reiterated policy documents aimed at capacity reduction [1] Group 1: Policy Impact on Petrochemical Industry - The introduction of the "Old Chemical Equipment Assessment Method (Draft for Comments)" and notifications targeting production facilities over 20 years old have raised widespread expectations for capacity reduction in the petrochemical sector [1] - The "Elimination and Upgrade Work Plan for Outdated Chemical Equipment" released in June 2024 mandates the complete elimination of production facilities operating for 30 years or more by the end of 2029 [1] - China has intensified efforts in energy conservation and emission reduction, establishing clear energy consumption standards for the refining and chemical sectors, including multiple policies aimed at phasing out outdated production facilities [1] Group 2: Energy Consumption Standards - The newly implemented national standard GB 30251-2024 sets strict energy consumption limits for key refined chemical products, requiring existing facilities to meet at least level three energy consumption standards, while new or expanded facilities must meet at least level two standards [2] - By 2025, over 50% of the PX industry's capacity is expected to meet benchmark energy efficiency levels, with a goal to phase out capacities below the minimum efficiency standards [2] - Many companies are actively responding to policy requirements by implementing technological upgrades to reduce energy consumption, with most existing PX capacities meeting the energy requirement of below 550 kg oil equivalent/ton [2] Group 3: Current Capacity and Market Dynamics - Over 500,000 tons/year of PX capacity is currently idle, with gradual shutdowns starting from 2022 [4] - China's total PX capacity has reached 43.67 million tons/year, with significant portions of this capacity being older facilities, including approximately 900,000 tons/year of PX units that have been in operation for over 30 years [4] - The total capacity of outdated facilities amounts to 3.3 million tons/year, with nearly 2.8 million tons/year still in operation, indicating a significant risk of obsolescence in the PX industry [4] Group 4: Market Reactions and Price Implications - The futures market and financial platforms are particularly sensitive to future price expectations and respond quickly to marginal variables [5] - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to not only control capacity but also guide and adjust prices, potentially impacting the overall commodity market [5]