“反内卷”政策催化 焦煤期货主力合约持续上涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in coking coal futures is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy aimed at curbing excessive production and stabilizing market expectations, leading to increased market confidence and investment inflow [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 25, the main coking coal futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange reached a peak of 1259 RMB/ton, up 4.34% from the opening [1]. - The main coking coal contract's open interest fluctuated significantly, with a daily increase of 53,000 contracts, while total open interest decreased by 101,000 contracts since July 1 [2]. - Trading volume for coking coal increased to 2.883 million contracts, up 181,200 contracts from July 1, with total funds in coking coal reaching 14.289 billion RMB, an increase of 5.185 billion RMB [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address the cyclical issues in the coal industry, which has been characterized by a cycle of increased production and falling prices [1][3]. - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote orderly exit of outdated production capacity, enhancing market confidence [3]. - The National Energy Administration's upcoming inspections of coal mine production are intended to enforce production limits and stabilize supply [3][5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current coal supply-demand landscape is undergoing a transformation, with domestic production cuts and reduced imports contributing to tighter supply [5]. - Demand for coal remains robust due to a rebound in the steel industry and strong electricity generation needs [5]. - Recent data indicates that coal production in major regions like Shanxi is declining, and the overall coal inventory continues to decrease, particularly in upstream mining and washing plants [6]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment in the coal market is currently strong, with low auction failure rates for coking coal, indicating healthy demand and price increases [6]. - The market is expected to remain volatile, with potential upward pressure on prices due to supply-side policies and the need for stable coal prices to avoid excessive cost burdens on downstream industries [6][5].