7.25纯碱日评：纯碱市场稳中偏强震荡

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market continues to rise, driven by stable downstream demand and a slight decrease in supply due to maintenance at production facilities [2][5]. Price Trends - As of July 25, the price of light soda ash in North China is between 1270-1320 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1370-1420 CNY/ton. In East China, light soda ash ranges from 1270-1510 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash is between 1360-1420 CNY/ton [2]. - The soda ash price index for light soda ash on July 25 is 1281.43, up 35.71 from the previous working day, a rise of 2.87%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1344.29, increasing by 42.86, or 3.29% [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On July 25, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1411 CNY/ton and closed at 1440 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.57%. The highest price during the day was 1456 CNY/ton, and the lowest was 1405 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 905,281 contracts, a decrease of 21,639 contracts [5]. - The futures market is influenced by optimistic sentiment from the chemical sector and policies aimed at reducing competition, leading to significant price increases [5]. Market Outlook - The domestic soda ash market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term, supported by policy measures. However, the overall overcapacity in the industry may limit further price increases [6]. - It is advised to closely monitor changes in downstream demand and inventory levels of enterprises [6].