启铼研究院首席经济学家潘向东：全年目标可控，四季度政策加力无悬念

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5% [1][2] - The economic performance exceeded external expectations, primarily driven by a rebound in consumption and exports, despite a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in real estate [1][2] Key Support Factors - The growth of 5.3% in GDP was supported by resilient exports and effective counter-cyclical policies that boosted domestic consumption and investment [2] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 2.72 percentage points to GDP, while capital formation added 1.28 percentage points, indicating that domestic demand is becoming the main driver of economic growth [2] Future Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to face downward pressure in the third and fourth quarters, but the good start in the first half makes the annual target of around 5% relatively controllable [3] - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies and increased fiscal support are anticipated to bolster investment and enhance consumption policies, potentially restoring domestic demand momentum [4][5] Trade Dynamics - In the first half of the year, China's exports grew by 7.2% while imports fell by 2.7%, with significant growth in machinery, high-end equipment, and "new three types" products [6][8] - The export structure is shifting towards high-tech and high-value-added products, reflecting improvements in manufacturing capabilities and competitiveness in mid-to-high-end industrial chains [6][7] Import Trends - The decline in imports is attributed to several factors, including falling international commodity prices, uneven recovery in domestic investment, and reduced reliance on imported technology and equipment due to domestic substitution [7][8] - As domestic consumption and investment gradually recover, imports of high-tech and high-quality consumer goods are expected to rebound [8] External Trade Strategy - The diversification of trade markets has shown effectiveness, with trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reaching 11.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 51.8% of China's total foreign trade [8] - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with exports to the region growing by 13% in the first half of the year, enhancing the resilience of China's foreign trade [8]