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连连数字(2598.HK)：2B数字支付服务商 看好份额提升前景
Ge Long Hui·2025-07-26 03:05

Core Viewpoint - The company is optimistic about its potential in the cross-border payment sector, highlighting its merchant accumulation, brand recognition, and market share growth potential, with a target price of HKD 17.3, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the latest closing price [1] Group 1: Business Overview - The company's digital payment business is divided into global payments, primarily serving cross-border e-commerce sellers, and domestic payments, catering to enterprise clients [1] - For 2024, the company's total payment volume (TPV) is projected to reach CNY 3.3 trillion, with global and domestic payment TPV expected to be CNY 281.5 billion and CNY 3.0 trillion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 63% and 65% [1] - Total revenue for 2024 is forecasted at CNY 1.31 billion, a 28% increase year-on-year, with global payments contributing 70% to digital payment revenue [1] Group 2: Market Position and Competition - The cross-border payment service market is relatively fragmented, with key competitors including Payoneer, PingPong, and others [1] - The company's global payment TPV is expected to account for 13.1% of China's cross-border e-commerce export value in 2024, up from 9.4% in 2023 [1] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The company has obtained a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license, positioning it for future opportunities in virtual asset trading and stablecoin issuance [2] - Stablecoins are anticipated to be utilized in cross-border trade for small currency payments and settlements, addressing issues such as long settlement cycles and high fees [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - For 2025, the overall TPV is expected to grow by 27%, with global payments and domestic payments projected to increase by 45% and 25%, respectively [2] - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated to reach CNY 1.63 billion, a 24% year-on-year increase, with a stable gross margin of 52% [2] Group 5: Valuation - The company employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a target price of HKD 17.3, which includes a valuation of HKD 16.0 from its core business and HKD 1.3 from its equity stake in a connected company [3] - The company is viewed positively due to its growth in TPV, revenue, and profit improvement prospects, alongside innovations in cross-border payment technology [3]