全球股市狂欢还能走多远？大连游学论道：与付鹏等一线大咖畅聊资产配置风向

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached historical highs on July 25, while the Shanghai Composite Index also surpassed 3600 points, marking an annual peak [1] - The focus on tariff issues is expected to return in August, potentially impacting the current global equity market rally [1] - Major international investment banks have issued warnings regarding increased risks in the U.S. stock market, with indicators of market speculation reaching historical highs, second only to the 2000 internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [2][3] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank highlighted that the scale of margin debt, which investors use to borrow money for stock trading, has historically exceeded $1 trillion, indicating a "heated" market [3] - Bank of America’s strategist reiterated the risk of a bubble, attributing it to loose monetary policies and relaxed financial regulations, suggesting that increased retail participation leads to greater liquidity and volatility [3] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are seen as the only factor that could sustain the U.S. bull market amid rising market risks, with Goldman Sachs economists predicting a rate cut in September, earlier than previously expected [3] Group 3 - Recent political changes in Japan, including the ruling coalition's defeat in the House of Councillors election, have led to a decline in Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's approval ratings [4] - Following the election loss, Ishiba is expected to resign after assessing the reasons for the defeat, leading to a presidential election within the ruling party [5]