【UNFX 课堂】当总统的手伸向利率按钮唯有看透规则者成为赢家

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, driven by President Trump's calls for significant rate cuts, which could impact the strength of the US dollar [2] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have surged, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 68% probability, suggesting that continued pressure from Trump could lead to more liquidity easing, directly affecting the dollar's value [2] - The overnight reverse repo scale has dropped to $435 billion as of July 25, raising concerns about short-term liquidity and the potential for the Fed to halt its balance sheet reduction, which would increase dollar liquidity in the market [2] Group 2 - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is approaching a critical support level of 107.5 as of July 26, and a breach of this level could trigger accelerated programmatic selling [2] - The articles emphasize the importance of monitoring US Treasury yields, particularly the 2-year yield, as rising rate cut expectations could lower these yields, creating a compounded negative effect on the dollar [3] - The current SOFR rate stands at 5.32%, and any significant movements in this rate could signal tightening in the interbank funding market, potentially forcing the Fed to act sooner [3]