这次要动真格了！猪价旺季要没了！

Core Insights - The swine market is undergoing significant changes, with government regulations aimed at controlling production capacity and market supply [2][4] - Despite a recovery in pig prices last year, underlying issues such as increased production capacity and supply pressures remain [2][4] - The expectation of a strong demand season for pork may not materialize due to oversupply and limited consumption growth [8][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of Q2, the national pig inventory reached 42.447 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating a potential rise in market supply in the second half of the year [4] - The increase in piglet numbers, up over 9% year-on-year, suggests that the volume of pigs available for market will also rise [4] - Despite recovery in sectors like tourism and dining, pork consumption remains weak, unable to absorb the increased supply [4] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The pig price peaked at 21.15 yuan/kg in Q3 due to supply constraints and bullish market sentiment, but a correction was expected as the market could not sustain such high prices [7][8] - The market's previous optimism was driven by a significant drop in production capacity, but this has not translated into sustained price increases [5][8] - The expectation of a strong demand season in Q4 may be undermined by an anticipated surge in supply, leading to a "旺季不旺" (strong season not strong) scenario [8][10] Future Outlook - The process of reducing production capacity is gradual, and without the influence of secondary fattening, pig output is likely to increase [10] - While this year may not see a robust demand season, it is expected to set the stage for a more normalized market in the following year [10] - Cost support is anticipated to keep prices above breakeven levels, indicating a shift towards a micro-profit era for pig farming [10]