黄金“蓄势待发”！摩根大通：最强催化剂是“美国就业恶化导致美联储降息”

Core Viewpoint - Despite temporary pressure on gold prices from trade agreements, gold is poised for a breakout, with potential catalysts including Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and deteriorating U.S. employment data [1][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Morgan Stanley indicates that the key to gold price increases lies in ETF inflows, which require the Federal Reserve to fulfill rate cut expectations and drive down U.S. real yields [1]. - The optimistic scenario predicts gold prices could reach $3,675 per ounce by year-end and $4,000 per ounce by early next year [1]. - Gold prices have been fluctuating between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce since May, with recent trade agreements exerting downward pressure [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchases - Central bank gold purchases continue to provide a bottom support for gold prices, with reported purchases rising to 20 tons in May, a year-on-year increase of approximately 4% for the first five months of 2024 [2]. - The People's Bank of China has also continued its gold purchases, adding about 2 tons in June [2]. Group 3: ETF Inflows and Market Sensitivity - The forecast assumes a net increase of 715 tons (+22%) in global gold ETF holdings this year, which is crucial for gold prices reaching $4,000 per ounce [6]. - Year-to-date, global ETF holdings have increased by 407 tons (12.6%), with significant contributions from the U.S. (203 tons) and China (86 tons) [6]. - ETF inflows are sensitive to real interest rates, with historical data showing that significant monthly increases in ETF holdings correlate with declines in U.S. 10-year real yields [6]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will significantly influence gold price movements, with a 63% probability of a rate cut in September [9]. - A deterioration in U.S. labor market data could trigger a stronger market reaction, leading to increased demand for gold ETFs and higher prices [9]. - Two scenarios are outlined: a resilient economy with relaxed Fed policies could push gold above $3,500 per ounce, while substantial labor market deterioration could lead to a significant bullish response, solidifying a move towards $4,000 per ounce [9].